Santorum

The Arizona Republican Debate

by asmwizard

The debate held on February 22, 2012 in Mesa, Arizona may have been the last of the entire Republican primary season.  CNN hosted, and Don King moderated.  The audience saw Ron Paul on the left, the Santorum, Romney and Gingrich. 

It was a spirited debate, largely without mistakes by the participants.  There were no standing ovations, but applause was frequent.  There were even a few boos. 

If you assume that Paul and Gingrich were irrelevant, and the only real contest was between frontrunner Santorum and close runner-up Romney, I would say Romney won.  Santorum failed to gain significant ground, was booed over his statements on Title X (subsidies to Planned Parenthood),  and even though the two men attacked each other Romney probably inflicted a few more wounds on Santorum than the other way around.   The two received the most time.

Rating the performances only, Gingrich stood head and shoulders above the others.  He hit doubles and triples on every at bat, while the others hit only singles.  He almost certainly helped himself by giving the best answers on every question.  Asked about what he would do on illegal immigration, a huge issue in Arizona, he hit a home run by saying he’d build the entire fence, then work with the governors of the states which border Mexico.  He looked comfortable and happy on stage, smiling a great deal, but there were virtually no attacks on either him or Paul.  Paul was also comfortable as he responded in his typical erratic fashion.  Santorum and Romney spent a much of their time bashing each other – with trivialities, for the most part.  

My notes on the debate follow, with my evaluation at the end.  I’ll abbreviate by using the first letter of the candidate’s last name. I’ll also use O for Obama.

? As president, what would you do about the national debt?  S – I’d cut 5 trillion in my first 5 years; I have experience in tackling tough jobs; would cut entitlement spending.  R – S voted for raising the debt ceiling 5 times; in business, you balance the budget or go out of business; I’d look at every government program, if unessential, cut it; if state could do it better, I’d give it to them.  S – while I was in Congress, the % of national debt to GDP went from 68% to 64%.  R – will cut taxes on everyone by 20%; the federal government doubled in size during Santorum’s time in office.  G – we balanced the budget 4 consecutive years while I was Speaker;  you can’t make major cuts while there is high unemployment, we’d have to tackle that first; there is enormous potential for federal income in allowing oil, coal and gas production from them.  P – S is a fake fiscal conservative; S voted for No Child Left Behind; I never voted for a deficit; S has a credibility problem.  S – The Weekly Standard rated me the most fiscally conservative senator during my time; I took on Medicare and Social Security reform; I took on the tough issues.  P – Republicans like foreign aid; I don’t.

? (for R) You described yourself as severely conservative.  What’s that?  R – I cut taxes 19 times, etc. 

? (for G) Is it possible to have both deficit reduction and economic growth at the same time?  G – current fed government is a disaster; I’d modernize government.

? (for S) R said you gave too many earmarks.   S –  R asked for earmarks to help the Olympics; took 300-400 million for Massachusetts as governor; there are good and bad earmarks; Congress has a role in allocating resources.  R – as prez, I would ban earmarks tacked on to other bills, would require them to be separate bills, or ask for the line item veto; while I fought to save the Olympics, S was voting for the Bridge to Nowhere.  S – R is misrepresenting the facts; I support line item veto;  G – I worked to help the Olympics get the money they needed.

? (for S) Was it wrong to bail out the auto industry?  S – I oppose bailouts with federal money; opposed the Wall Street bailouts; government gains too much control; we should allow the markets to work; R supported the Wall Street bailouts, but opposed those to the auto industry.  R – there was danger that all the banks would go under, we would have had a financial collapse, so I supported it; the auto industry would have been helped by going through managed bankruptcy.   G – auto management caved to the UAW; O paid off the UAW at the expense of GM bondholders.  P – no bailouts, ever; government should protect contracts.

? Do you believe in birth control?  G – O voted, as a state senator, to protect doctors who kill survivors of late term abortions.  R – Obama warring on religion – his position is clear;  in Massachusetts, I worked to help Catholic institutions keep adoption, but couldn’t win.

? (for S) If elected, will you talk about the dangers of contraception?  S – children out of wedlock much less likely to succeed; 5 times the chance that a child raised in a single parent household will be poor.  P – government gets involved in things they shouldn’t; morality is bad, not pills.  R – there should be no requirement for Catholic institutions to provide a morning after pill.   G – when government is the provider of services, you move toward tyranny.  P – S voted for Planned Parenthood; they should get nothing.  S – I did, but it was part of a very large bill; if prez, I will defund Planned Parenthood.  R – S, you said you personally don’t support contraception.  S – true, but I voted for bills that support it.  Romney-care was the model for Obama-care.  R – our bill was 20 pages, while O-care was more than 2000.   As prez, I will repeal Obama-care;  S, you supported Arlen Spector; I balanced the budget every year as governor.  S – R, you used federal money to pay for Romney-care; you had a constitutional requrirement to balance the budget.

? What will you do as president to secure the border?  P – we need more resources.  G – Walls work; when we erected a wall between San Diego and Tijuana, illegals went elsewhere;   I’d be prepared to move up to half of the 23,000 Homeland Security employees to the border. 

? (for R) You talked about self-deportation.  R – I’d use e-verify; I’d drop lawsuits against states; will complete the fence. 

? (for S)  Would you penalize homeowners for hiring illegal aliens?  S – I won’t require them to use e-verify.

? (for G) Rubio said Republican rhetoric on illegals is too harsh.  Is it?  G – We may have been; I voted to close the border as early as 1986, but it never happened; we must go step by step, first close the border. 

? Describe yourself with only one word.  P – consistent.  S – courageous.  R – resolute.  G – cheerful.  (G got a laugh.)

? As commander-in chief, would you send women into combat?  R – I’d ask the military; more than 100 American military women have lost their lives in Iran and Afghanistan;  O is cutting our military; I would strengthen it.  G – we now live in a world of total warfare; all citizens are at risk; nuclear weapons used against our cities is a real possibility; Obama is the most dangerous president in history, because of his foreign policy incompetence.  P – we fight too many offensive wars.   S – women are in danger now; I am concerned about women in the infantry. 

?  How should we deal with Iran obtaining nuclear weapons?  G – Administration has it all wrong; General Dempsey said Iran is rational – that is totally wrong; when a dictator says he wants to kill us, I believe him; 3 nuclear weapons would wipe out Israel; I believe they have a moral responsibility to protect themselves, even with a pre-emptive strike.  R – we can’t allow Iran to have nukes; O bowed to stolen elections in Iran.  S – I agree with R’s comments; do the opposite of what Joe Biden says and you can’t go wrong.  P – we don’t know if Iran has a weapon; other crazy talk. 

? (for S) Should we intervene in Syria?  S – Syria is a puppet state of Iran; O never stands up to Iran.  G – we should change our energy policy to become independent, so we will never again have to bow to a Saudi king; I would covertly work to destroy Assad’s regime in Syria.  R – O is feckless; Syria is a key ally of Iran.  P – we have spent 4 trillion dollars in the mideast for no good results.

? What about No Child Left Behind?  S – I supported it, now I don’t; the feds and the states should get out of education; we must stand up to teacher’s unions.  G – I supported charter schools; we should urge states to return power to the parents; we need fundamental rethinking in education.  P – there’s no authority for the federal government to do anything in education. 

?  What’s the biggest misconception about you?  P – that I can’t win.  G – that I can’t get things done, unlike politicians who just talk about things they will do.  R – that I won’t lead the country as a conservative.  S – that I can’t defeat O, and that I can’t run a campaign on a shoestring.

 

 

 

The candidates and their chances

by asmwizard

I evaluate the candidates and their chances to win. (Written on January 31, 2012, before Florida’s results are known.)

Mitt Romney:

  • Seems to have no clear ideas of what he will do in anything but economics. On his website, his “jobs” white paper (read economics) is extensive and detailed, but appears to have been written by someone else. Whoever wrote it said Romney wants a “territorial” tax system, in which a company pays taxes only in the country where the income is earned. For example, an American company selling goods in Germany would only pay taxes to Germany. This scares me, because it might invite outsourcing. His health care reform page has only general suggestions. His foreign policy page again seems to have been written by someone else and contains only generalities. We end up knowing nothing whatever about what he will do in entitlement reform and foreign policy.
  • Is the least experienced candidate at the national level. I fear he will be learning on the job to a great extent.
  • Is not clearly conservative. He has held liberal positions in the past, and we may be electing someone who (like Obama) will say what is necessary to be elected, then as president will revert to his real ideology and will govern from the left.
  • Is definitely a good manager, according to his reputation. That is his strong suit. A good manager can overcome gaps in his personal knowledge and understanding of issues. I only pray that he will be able to do this.
  • Who knows whether Romney is a true reformer? I don’t know that he has the ideas or the energy to reform the current version of America to any extent. This is what scares me about him – we may be electing another establishment conservative who won’t really do anything.
  • Appears to have the nomination locked up. His landslide win in Florida and his huge supply of campaign money leaves Gingrich with little hope of future success. I’d rate Romney’s chances as 80%. Only something unpredictable can derail him.

Ron Paul:

  • A libertarian, he is a protest candidate, trying to raise awareness as to how far America has strayed from the Constitution and the principles of the Founding Fathers.
  • He is too old to be president, in my opinion. Even though he may be the healthiest of the candidates now, at 76 his health and vigor could wane rapidly.
  • His foreign policy ideas are less than sane.
  • He has no chance to be elected president.

Rick Santorum:

  • Is a true conservative, is bright and very energetic. He is also young and unseasoned.
  • His website is well done, detailed, and comprehensive. It shows a great deal of thought has gone into what he will do as president.
  • His lack of gravitas holds him back, and would hold him back as president. He might try for reforms, but Congress and the American people might not take him seriously. In 4 or 8 years, after maturing, he might be an ideal candidate.
  • His chances of election would depend on Gingrich dropping out before he does, but Romney would have to commit a major blunder. Not likely. I’d rate his chances at 5%.

Newt Gingrich:

  • Is a true conservative. Like Rick, is bright and very energetic, almost to a fault. At 68, with 20 years in the House behind him, and a dozen years of being out of office and mostly out of politics, he has had time to think and mature.
  • He is a true reformer, and as president would make many fundamental changes. He would step on many, many toes in the process. In other words, he is exactly what we need. Unfortunately, the people with the toes he would step on know that, and are ferociously and viciously attacking him.
  • He understands the issues far better than any of the other candidates, with the possible exception of Ron Paul. His long career in the House has completely educated him on the issues.
  • His debate skills, formidable as they are, will not help him against Obama, who will simply refuse to debate. Newt will have to campaign with TV appearances, ads, and help from blogs and conservative journalists.
  • I give him a 15% chance of being the nominee. Newt’s potential depends on something unpredictable happening. Even if Santorum drops out and endorses him before Super Tuesday, Newt’s chances are slim and none.

Second Florida Debate

by asmwizard

CNN and Wolf Blitzer hosted the 2nd and final Florida Republican debate. It took place on January 26, 2012.  The audience was allowed to applaud, but there were no standing ovations. 

My notes on the debate follow, with my evaluation at the end.  I’ll abbreviate by using the first letter of the candidate’s last name.  I’ll also use O for Obama.  

? Illegal immigration.  Is self-deportation, as advocated by R, possible?  S – yes; they broke the law when they entered; should not be able to stay; need strong employer sanctions.  G – it’s possible; make legal immigration easier, deportation easier; those here a very long time should have a legal way to stay; R – he favors the people who are waiting in line to immigrate legally. P – not practical to deport; closing the border hurts the economy.  R – 11 million grandmothers is not the problem.

? Why do you describe R as anti-immigration?  G – need some level of humanity.  R – I’m not anti-immigrant; his rhetoric is inexcusable; Newt should apologize to me.

? In your recent ad, you say Newt describe Spanish as the language of the ghetto.  Do you believe that?  R – haven’t seen the ad.  G – I didn’t say that, I didn’t single out Spanish; there are 94 languages spoken at Miami Dade College; English should be the official language.

? About Iran and China courting of Latin America (Venezuela, Cuba).   How to do better in Latin America?  P – Free trade; include Cuba; we should stop interfering.  S – Obama’s policy horrible, sides with leftists (Castro, Chavez) over Honduras; Radical Islam a threat.  P – Santorum always wants to use force.  S – Paul wasn’t listening to what I said; O left Columbia to hang out to dry for 3 years.

? Housing slump and foreclosures.  What to do? G – Florida one of the 2 or 3 worst hard-hit states; R owns Fannie Mae & Freddy Mac & Goldman Sachs stocks; He’s made millions from them; He should say how much he owns.  R – my investments are in a blind trust; Any ownership of those firms in mutual funds, not company stocks; G also has investments in those firms; G made 1.6 million on Freddy Mac as an influence peddler.  G – the only time I ever tried to influence anyone about FM was in a speech before Congress in 2008, when I urged Congress not to give them money.  P – we should have auctioned Fanny & Freddy off long ago; the Commercial Reinvestment Act of Congress was why we had the housing bubble.  S – I tried to stop the coming real estate collapse, but the Democrats blocked us; G & R should stop the petty stuff and focus on the issues! 

? G, now that R has released his tax records, are you satisfied with his transparency?  G – that’s a nonsense question.  (Here, Wolf Blitz insisted on an answer)  An exchange took place between G & R. 

? G, under your tax plan, R would have paid no taxes.  Is that all right with you?  G – I want to reduce taxes for everyone; I’m not interested in raising taxes, rather shrink government spending to match the revenue.  S – My tax plan is 2 tier, has 28% top rate, 10% bottom rate.  I don’t support a zero capital gains tax as G does.  P – unsound money, inflation steals from everyone, is a de facto tax raise. 

? P, you are 76.  Are you prepared to release your medical records?  P – sure, but it’s only about 1 page.  I challenge the others on this stage to get on a bike and try to stay with me for 25 miles; Wolf, you should remember there are laws against age discrimination.  (Paul got a laugh for this.)

? G has advocated building a moon base.  How would you handle NASA and manned space flight? S – G’s plan for station on the moon enormously expensive, we can’t afford it; debt and deficit out of control, we have to cut, not spend;  G’s not lacking for zany ideas, but this is irresponsible.  G – NASA has built up a big bureaucracy and has become ineffective; currently, no launch vehicle; I wouldn’t spend a lot of money for space station, I’d offer prizes and incentives to private industry; Lindbergh crossed the Atlantic to win the Orteig prize; the Atlas 5 would make a good launch vehicle; I wouldn’t want to be the president who shuts down our space program and lets China become dominant.  S – I’d only spend money for space defense; I’ll cut other programs; Newt is not responsible.  P – I go along with privatizing.  G – I’d do it program is 90% private sector.  R – G goes from state to state, telling each what they want to hear.  G – a presidential candidate should know the state’s problems; priorities make it possible to spend amply in some areas while cutting others. P – G has said he balanced the budget 4 straight years as Speaker, but they didn’t count entitlements, actually debt went up 1 trillion $ during that time.  G – that’s the way the budget was reported then; I’ve advocated taking Social Security off budget, to keep presidents honest.

? (audience member asked) I’m unemployed and can’t afford health care insurance, what will you do as prez?  P – must reduce health care costs; medical insurance mostly provided by employers, should go with you when you leave a job.  G – repeal O-care, fix the economy so she’ll have a job.  R – people should own their insurance.  S – R is the author of Obamacare; G advocated the individual mandate for 20 years; Massachusetts is the model for O-care. G – I advocated state mandates, never a federal mandate.  R – Massachusetts folks like it by 3 – 1; it was only for 8%; not really a mandate, there’s a fine for not having insurance.  S – More and more Mass. people are opting to pay the fine because insurance has gone up.  R – this isn’t worth getting angry about.  S – your mandate same as O’s.

? Name Hispanics you would like to include in your cabinet.  S – Rubio. R – (named several). G – (named several); I might use Rubio for more important position. (implying vice president)

? Why would your wife be a great first lady?  P – (can’t remember what he said); R – my wife has had multiple sclerosis & breast cancer; would be an advocate for women’s health; has a passion for young people.  G – she has an artistic focus, plays piano, produced TV videos, written a best selling children’s book.  S – she’s a great mother to our 7 children; a nurse, has a law degree, gave it all up to be a wife and mother; wrote a children’s book on manners.

? R, you said G not as close to Ronald Reagan as he claims.  Were you closer to Reagan than G?  R – no, I became politically invoved when I ran for governor.  G – Michael Reagan has endorsed me, Nancy Reagan said Reagan passed the torch to me.  (My Note – yesterday, both Rush Limbaugh and Bill O’Reilly said it was ridiculous and castigated R for the assertion.)

? How would you handle Cuba?  S – Cuba is the heart of the leftist cancer spreading through Latin America; keep sanctions going; O rewards thuggery and Marxism.  P – Sanctions backfire; Cuba won’t invade us; I’d trade with them.  R – O has ignored Latin America; I’d continue sanctions. G – after Fidel Castro passes away, I’d try to improve relations with Cuba; O is obsessed with the “Arab Spring”; I’d try to foster a “Cuban Spring”.

?  (asked by a Palestinian audience member)  How to bring peace to Israel and Palestine?  R – Can’t as long as Hamas wants to destroy Israel; Palestinian leadership doesn’t want a 2-state solution; O has thrown Israel under the bus. 

? G, you said the “Palestinians are an invented people.”  What do you mean by that?  G – technically, that’s true; Palestine is making war against Israel, 11 rockets fired into Israel last month; no Palestinian state possible until they give up on destroying Israel; On becoming prez, I’d instruct the State Dept. to move our embassy from Tel Aviv to Jersualem, which would send a message to Palestinians.

? (audience member from PR) There are 4 million Puerto Ricans in the US and 3.5 million there.  Would you support statehood for PR?  S – no position on that, let them decide.

?  How would your religion impact your presidency?  R – I’d pray over complex issues; G – I’d pray too; it should be a part of my total life, not just on Sunday; one of the reasons I’m running is because of the secular war against religion.

?  Why are you the candidate most likely to beat O?  P – I poll well against him.  R – we need extraordinary change; you can’t change things with an insider; I’ve been in business.  G – I’d pose a very simple choice – big government and continuation of what we have now, or more jobs and less food stamps.  S – I’m better, but S & G aren’t. 

The debate lasted about 1:50.  

I see the final score as Romney won, but was very vicious in attacking Gingrich.  Gingrich needed a home run, didn’t get it, although he generally spoke well.  Santorum was strong.  I’d say Romney and Santorum gained voters, Gingrich lost.

In my opinion, Newt is likely to be badly defeated next Tuesday.  The latest polls show Romney up by 7 to 10 points in Florida.  I’ll predict at least a 10 point win by Romney, and I expect Santorum to come up a bit from his current 10 – 12 per cent – at Newt’s expense. 

It would be ironic, but if Newt is trounced as badly as I expect, I think he might drop out in February and endorse Santorum.  Would Santorum give Romney a run for his money after that?  I don’t know.

I don’t think Romney has a vision for the presidency – he just wants to come in and manage.  Does he really believe what he’s saying, or will he revert to moderate, almost liberal, policies after his election?  Again, I don’t know.  I’m sure, however, that Gingrich if elected would come in and reform the government extensively.  America would be much better off, I believe.  That possibility is looking more and more remote.

 

 

 

 

 

Compare their websites

by asmwizard

The 3 remaining candidates (discounting Paul, who has said he doesn’t expect to win).  In order to know what they want to do as president, it’s instructive to compare their campaign websites:

www.newt.org www.mittromney.com www.ricksantorum.com

The content of each site can change, but here are my current impressions:

Santorum: the first thing I saw was his donate page, asking for money.  Running down the right side is a menu containing his bio “Why Rick”, his op-ed pieces on his plans and policies “Where I Stand”, and A page of video clips, “Rick TV”.  If you come back to his home page the donation form is gone.  His “Where I Stand” page is a list of issues, each with a short paragraph and a click to “more” which brings up the full article.  This is a good and detailed explanation of his plans and policies.  It is impressive and well done.

Romney:  Again, his donation form came up first.  His menu is across the top: bio, issues, states, news . . . etc.  On his Issues page, he lists 3 issues: jobs, health care, and foreign policy.  When you click on jobs, you get a huge pdf file with more than a hundred pages, with very small print, very detailed but appearing to be written by someone other than Mitt.  It contains phrases like “ he will . . .”.   The health care page, on the other hand, is very short and totally lacking of detail. The foreign policy page is a link to another pdf white paper of about 40 pages, again written by someone else and in the 3rd person.  I would much prefer to see him write his own issues material. 

Gingrich: His home page features a picture rotation.  His issues page is called “solutions”.  His items in “solutions” are similar in layout to Santorum’s, a list of issues each with a short paragraph and a click to “more”.  However, he also has a link to his “21st Century Contract with America”, which brings up long and detailed articles. There is a great deal of detail on what he intends to do. 

I see Gingrich’s site as best and the most detailed.  Santorum’s site is also instructive as to what he wants to do.  Romney’s “issues” page is very sparse.  It’s as though he needs something there as a place holder.  If the devil is in the details, vote for Gingrich and Santorum before Romney.  You’ll have a better idea of what you’ll get.

 

 

First Florida debate

by asmwizard

 

Conducted by Brian Williams, the first Florida debate, on January 23 — just two days after the SC primary — was televised by NBC. The audience was instructed not to applaud, which reduced the impact made by the candidates. It probably prevented a lot of boos and cheers for Paul, and made it harder to know who won the debate.

 

The roles of the candidates seemed to have been reversed. For the first time, it wasn’t Romney trying to be presidential and the other candidates attacking him, rather it was Gingrich who played that role. In my view, Gingrich won, but beauty is in the eye of the beholder. On CNN after the debate, three left-leaners seemed to think Romney won, that his attacks were effective. I thought Gingrich deflected them and suffered very little damage. There was no doubt that Romney was out to destroy him in the first hour, and to a lesser extent Santorum and even Paul tried as well. There was little post-debate analysis.

 

Not much new was learned. This morning, Laura Ingraham described the debate as agonizingly boring. The absence of crowd response and the lack of new material, as well as the lack of substantial differences with the candidates probably made the debate average at best. Newt kept his cool, never went off against anyone, so the level of passion was less than in the SC debates.

 

Romney asserted that Gingrich was kicked out of the House by his fellow Republicans; Newt responded by saying he asked them to vote against him because they needed to get the issue out of the way. I thought the argument was acceptable. Romney also said repeatedly that Newt had lobbied while working at Freddie Mac, Newt denied it, and had released his last contract with them. Newt said he has never lobbied in his entire career.

 

I don’t believe this debate will affect the polls very much.

 

That’s about as much as I feel like analyzing for this debate. The debate can be replayed from First Florida Debate


2nd SC Debate

by asmwizard

CNN sponsored the 2nd debate in Charleston, SC on Thursday, January 19.  John King was the moderator.  The four candidates looked almost lonely on the stage, since Perry had dropped out that morning.  The crowd was very large.

Note – anything below in parentheses is my opinion.

King began with Newt, asking him about his 2nd wife Marianne, who interviewed with ABC last Friday night.  The report was somehow made available to CNN.  ABC will run it tonight for the first time on Nightline.  Marianne accused him of asking her for an “open marriage” at the time he was having an affair with Callista.  Newt immediately reacted in anger, saying he was appalled that CNN would open a presidential debate with such trash; saying he had gone through pain, and called it “despicable” that CNN made the decision to run it.  He said he was tired of the elite media attacking Republicans.

((My note: This was a huge moment. Newt may have won the debate, even the nomination, on his opening response to the question about his previous marriage. No one else on the stage is capable of such a powerful response. I don’t think anyone else would have dared to say it, or could have said it so eloquently. He might have won — or lost, the nomination based on his scolding of ABC, CNN, and John King. CNN, ABC, and King deserved it. I think it was the most memorable moment of the debates this far. Most such moments have come from Newt. I’m not sure how to evaluate the effect on the national audience. I know some of the Charleston audience stood and clapped. ))

Santorum was asked to comment, said people should make their own judgments; I am essentially perfect.  Paul wondered about the big corporations that own the media; Romney said it is not a real issue.

? Paul was asked for 3 things he would do as president to get people back to work; get government out of the way; sound currency; fewer regulations.  Gingrich said he’d repeal Dodd-Frank; take advantage of the natural gas off the coast of SC, and use some of the money to modernize the Port of Charleston; and overhaul the Corps of Engineers.

? Gingrich – what did Romney do wrong at Bain?  Georgetown (SC) Steel was a firm he closed down; Romney ought to explain his record at Bain.  Romney – capitalism works; he’d stimulate energy production in the US; would get rid of Obama’s crony capitalism, such as at GM and Solyndra.

? Santorum – on what he’d do for jobs – support capitalism; Obama wants to make everyone dependent; I’d cut taxes to zero for manufacturing firms.

? Paul – should federal govt. give special help to returning veterans? – Some.  Santorum – help veterans; he’s appalled that Obama is cutting veteran benefits while refusing to do anything with entitlements.  Romney – it should be done at the state level.  Gingrich – GI Bill after WWII and tax cuts made the economy take off.

? Romney – can Obamacare actually be reversed?  I will sign executive order on the first day granting waivers to every state; complete repeal will require friendly congress; after he eliminates Obamacare, he will replace it with market-oriented solutions. Gingrich – should repeal all of it; as for the provision that extends insurance for children at home up to 26 years old, elect us and your kids will have jobs and can go out and buy their own.  Santorum – trivial attack on Romney, accusing Romneycare being just like Obamacare; trivial attack on Newt saying he supported individual mandates up to 2008.  Here Santorum argued back and forth over the allegation.  Gingrich and Santorum then went back and forth over the mandate.  (This was largely wasted debate time.)  Paul – it’s likely we can’t fully defeat Obamacare; by the way, Santorum voted for Bush’s drug plan.

? Santorum – Gingrich recently suggested that it would be better if Santorum and Perry would drop out of the race.  Santorum – Being grandiose has never been a problem for Newt; he’s full of ideas, but we always have to worry about what he will say; I beat him 2-0 in Iowa and NH; he can’t manage anything; I’m steady.  Gingrich – The next president will have grandiose problems and will need to be able to handle them.  I can do that; I engineered the first Republican majority in the House since 1928.  I did this and that.  Santorum – (becoming really vicious) Newt has an idea a minute but doesn’t have major management skills; was evicted from the speakership by Republicans after 3 years; knew about the check kiting in the House by members for years but didn’t dare to do anything about it.  G – (defended himself.)  Romney – you’ve just heard why an outsider (like me) is needed; it’s amazing how much credit candidates take for things they play only a small part in; Newt was only mentioned in Reagan’s diary once.

? (for all) When will you release your taxes?  Gingrich – I released mine an hour ago, it’s on my website at www.newt.org;  Romney – I’ll release mine when they’re done; I pay a lot of taxes.  Santorum – I do my own taxes; my taxes are on my home computer; when I get home, I’ll release them. Romney – I don’t apologize for my success.

? Santorum – Apple Computer employs 500,000 in China, only about 40,000 in the US.  What would you do to bring those jobs back to the US?  I have a made in the USA policy; I advocate zero taxes on manufacturing firms. 

? Paul – How would you revive “Made in America”?  When we send money to China, they just use it to buy our debt, so it’s OK; We see less cost to consumers because of overseas manufacturing; We have more manufacturing in Right to Work states; I’m big on RTW.

? Gingrich – What’s your take on SOFA?  (The internet restriction bill now in Congress). I favor internet freedom; any company whose rights are compromised has the right to sue; SOFA the wrong thing to do.  Romney – Newt had it right; I favor a narrow restriction on the violators.  Paul – I opposed the law.  Santorum – I opposed the law, but internet can’t be totally free; piracy from overseas must be stopped.

? (for all) – If you could go back to the beginning of your campaign and do one thing differently, what would it be?  Gingrich – I’d skip the first 3 months, when I tried to be a traditional candidate; since then, I’ve run an idea-based, internet-oriented campaign.  Romney – spent less time talking about other candidates and more time on President Obama.  Santorum – wouldn’t change a thing; it’s awesome to be one of the 4 remaining candidates.  Paul – trying to better express myself; speak more slowly.

? Gingrich – You’ve mentioned a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants.  How would you handle the problem?  Close the border; make English the only official language; modernize the visa system; make it easier to deport illegals – 2 weeks instead of months (lots of luck on this one); guest worker verification system (essentially an on-line registry) outsourced to a credit card company like VISA or MasterCard, who are expert at catching fraud; For people already here, if they’ve been here 25 years, have paid their bills, committed no crimes, and have an American family sponsoring them, I’d allow them to stay.  (I doubt if many could jump all those hurdles.)  Romney – not a tough problem; I’d set up a register of residents (probably my phrase); I wouldn’t round them all up and ship them out.  (Other countries, such as Sweden and Mexico, have an online list – a registry – of all citizens.  I support the idea, but there are privacy buffs who would be horrified.)   Santorum – Newt’s idea bad; anyone here illegally 25 years probably stole their ID; Romney – we’re a nation of legal immigrants.  Paul – about 25% of illegals work for private individuals, would you punish them? Gingrich – as president I would immediately instruct my Attorney General to drop all immigration lawsuits against states such as Arizona and South Carolina. 

(Here some discussion of abortion, sniping back and forth between Gingrich, Romney, and Santorum.)

? (for all) One minute summary of why you should be the nominee.  Paul – SC known for respect of Liberty.  Gingrich – If a Saul Alinski radical and incompetent Obama is reelected, it’s all over; we must have a team victory, so we control House and Senate, to be most effective.  Romney – Pursuit of Happiness makes our country powerful; I like capitalism.  Santorum – I agree with Romney; I’m the best man to take on Obama; (Here, he actually bashed Romney and Gingrich) Vote for me.

++++++++++ debate ended.  It lasted about 2 hours.

The three remaining candidates are remorselessly determined to be president, and will do anything, say anything to win.  None will give in as long as there is any reasonable chance.  The remainder of the campaign will be bitterly fought.  Of course I exempt Paul, who is really a protest candidate and has no chance whatever to be the nominee.  

I may regret my words later, but here I’ll give my assessment of each candidate at this point, just before the SC election:

Romney – no longer regarded by everyone as the inevitable candidate.  Has been very smooth for almost all his debate exposure up to now.  He’s made very few gaffes.  He sounds like a conservative, says all the correct things, but I fear he might turn left after his election. 

Santorum – I still regard him as not ready, too inexperienced to be president.  His sniping at the other candidates, often repeating the same things, is often juvenile and petty; his bragging over his accomplishments as a Senator are not always convincing.  Still, he is conservative and bright.  He might not be a total disaster as president.  He is the dark horse, and Gingrich and Romney may destroy each other.

Gingrich – I see him as a brilliant, powerful man, the right person to lead at this critical time, although he made many enemies as Speaker – among establishment conservatives, who are barely center right, and of course he was terrifically attacked by Democrats, because he was effective against them.  Like Winston Churchill, his personality is complex, his flaws are many, but I believe he will be by far the most effective president in reversing the trend to the left. 

Paul – his simplistic ideas and his unwavering support of the unmodified constitution resonate with many, and he should be given a chance to speak at the convention.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

First SC January debate

by asmwizard

Conducted by Fox News on January 16, Martin Luther King Day.  Moderator, Bret Baier.  Questioners, Juan Williams, Jerry Seib, Kelly Evans.  Attendees, Perry, Santorum, Romney, Gingrich, Paul.  John Huntsman announced earlier in the day that he was suspending his campaign, then endorsed Romney.  A huge crowd attended in a very large auditorium.

In my opinion, Gingrich was the clear winner, getting very large crowd response; Perry, Romney, and Santorum tied for 2nd.  Paul was glib and tried to look more moderate, except for foreign policy.  Romney stuttered a few times, was not quite as smooth or confident as in previous debates, but probably didn’t hurt himself very much.  Perry may have had his best debate.  Santorum scored some points, was not at all deferential to Gingrich as he had been in past debates.

Fox News has some articles available which should persist: Gingrich spars  Romney put on defense

There was sharp questioning, my notes are very approximate, as I didn’t have time to jot down the questions.  I’ll try to show highlights only:

? Gingrich.  Last September, you vowed to be non-critical of the other candidates.  Why aren’t you now?  G – After the barrage leveled against me, I had to change my approach; Romney’s business record should be explored.

? Romney.  Your record at Bain?  R – 4 of the businesses I created were extremely successful; handled over 100 businesses.

? Perry.  You accused Romney of vulture capitalism.  P – in Georgetown SC Bain picked the company clean; Romney should release his income tax records; Dodd-Frank needs to be repealed, is choking banks.

Romney – the firm in question was a steel mill, hurt by foreign dumping; dumping broke about 40 steel producers about that time; I founded a new steel mill using modern technology that succeeded.

? Paul – your scathingly critical ads on other candidates. Pl – it’s OK if it reflects truth; Santorum voted against right to work.

Santorum – Paul has been quoting left-wing outfits like CREW; I did vote against right to work because my state (PA) was not a right to work state.

? Santorum – you accused Romney’s Super PAC of distorting your record.  R – his PAC accused me of advocating the vote for convicted felons; after a felon has served his time, been released, he deserves to regain his vote.

Romney – a convicted felon remains that all his life, should never be allowed the vote.  (Romney stuttered here.)

Perry – this is a state issue.

? Romney – in New Hampshire, Huntsman called you a “perfectly lubricated weather vane”.  Will you change again?.  R – No. (in so many words)

? Perry – in South Carolina, the federal government is suing to stop voter ID.  Does the fed have a right to do that?  P – Federal govt. has declared war on my home state of Texas and against SC; NLRB ruled against SC and Boeing because it’s a right to work state; As prez, I’ll boost state’s rights; Fed is also at war against organized religion; Obama’s administration is out of control.

? Santorum – would you support extending the jobless benefit by 20 more weeks?  S – not unless they receive training while receiving benefits.

? Gingrich – How many weeks of jobless benefits would you support?  G – All should be tied to training; 99 weeks of school would get you an associate degree.

— Skipping questions and trite responses from Romney and Paul;

? Romney – will you release your tax records?  R – I will, around April.

? Romney – you have a hard policy against illegal immigration.  Are you alienating Latino voters?  R – No; I would veto the Dream Act.

? Santorum – there are currently very high levels of unemployment and poverty in black population.  What would you do about that?  S – studies show if you work before marriage, graduate from high school, and refrain from having children out of wedlock, chances are only 2% you’ll be poor.

Paul – skip

? Gingrich  – aren’t your remarks about blacks working derogatory?  G – No; Black Americans should prefer jobs over food stamps; my daughter’s first job at 13 was as a church janitor, she loved having money; I’ve been publishing a newsletter on the subject; New York City pays ridiculous wages to their janitors because of unions; kids could also work in the cafeteria, library, and office, it would teach them responsibility and give them money which poor families especially need; only the elites despise money.

? Gingrich – didn’t you imply that Blacks are lazy and irresponsible?  (The crowd booed this question by Juan Williams)  G – Obama has put more people on food stamps than any other president in history; I will find a ways to help poor Blacks get a job and own it.  (Standing applause)

Paul – skip his remarks about foreign policy.

? Gingrich – Would you go into a country such as Pakistan and kill someone (such as Bin Laden) without declaring war?  G – Pakistan had to know Obama was living a mile from a huge military base; Andrew Jackson was sabered in the face as a young boy by a British officer, and his idea about dealing with enemies was – kill them!

Paul – we should have a golden rule in dealing with other countries – do with them as we would want them to deal with us; We wouldn’t like it if China came into our country and killed someone.

Romney – Gingrich was right; Barack Obama should not have announced the date of our withdrawal in Iraq; we are under attack, need a strong military.

? Romney – would you negotiate with the Taliban?  No, Biden said we would, and he was wrong to want to do that.

Skip dialogues with Santorum, Paul, Perry.

? Perry – Now that Islamist regime has taken over Turkey, should they be kicked out of NATO? P – cut their foreign aid to zero; Turkey no longer works with us; There should be no space between US and Israel; I served in the Air Force.

Paul – I too served in the Air Force – 5 years; Taliban just wants us out of Afghanistan, Al Quaeda wants to come here and kill us.

? Romney – would you have signed National Defense Act, which allows us to retain Guantanamo prisoners forever? R – foreign terrorists have no rights.

Santorum – American citizens caught as terrorists should have right of Habeas Corpus. 

Skip

? Romney – what are your plans for entitlement reform?  R – Medicare, premium support like Ryan plan.

Gingrich – Social Security voluntary choice between old plan and new plan; personal savings accounts like Chile, (wildly successful there); 95% would take advantage of PSA’s; every American becomes an investor.

? Santorum – Isn’t your plan to cut taxes for manufacturers to zero actually having govt. pick winners and losers?  S – I’d cut business taxes to a flat 17.5%, but manufacturing is where we’re losing jobs, which is why I’d cut taxes for them to zero; Newt’s Social Security plan is fiscally irresponsible because he’d have to borrow money to put in the personal savings accounts.

Gingrich – I’d finance it by cutting out 185 bureaucracies.  (My note – actually, in Chile a portion of payroll tax is paid into the personal account)

Romney – Rick is right; we can’t borrow more money at this time; Newt’s plan is fiscal insanity!  (I thought this was a mean choice of words)

Skip conversation on gun control

? Gingrich – You voted for a bill supporting one child per family in China.  G – wrong.  On Super PAC – I’ve called on mine to edit out that isn’t true.

Romney – we’d all like to see Super PAC’s ended.

? Perry – Now that illegal immigrant rate of border crossing is at a 40 year low, shouldn’t we stop spending money on it?  P – immigration is low because the economy is at a 40 year low.  If I’m president, border will be closed within one year.

? Gingrich – Has the No Child Left Behind Act been a failure?  G – yes; teachers tend to teach the tests; I would eliminate the Department of Education; return control to states; and they should eliminate their departments of education, return control to local school boards.

(end at about 1:50)

Note – there was a running twitter for the TV audience where the audience could indicate whether the candidate answered the question (above the line) or didn’t (below).  Newt and Paul were consistently above the line, Romney was the least here. 

There was a very good Fox News post-debate show with interviews of Romney, Gingrich, and Santorum.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New Hampshire debates.

by asmwizard

There were 2 debates in New Hampshire, on consecutive days. On Saturday, January 7, ABC News held a debate lasting an hour and 40 minutes. Diane Sawyer and George Stephanopoulis moderated. Candidates present were, left to right on stage, Huntsman, Paul, Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, and Perry. Michelle Bachmann is out now. The debate management was nothing special.

Note the placement on stage: Romney, as always, center left, and Santorum had a middle slot for the first time in any debate. As usual, the center candidates got the most time. Romney was his usual teflon self, no one really got to him, although everyone else tried. The audience didn’t applaud much.

There currently are videos and articles about the debate on ABC News, but links to these will quickly leave the main page. They should be long-term accessible at: Why Romney wasn’t attacked, Fact checking, and Short debate video.

From my notes on the debate:

Romney: If jobs are starting to turn around, Obama didn’t do it; Washington insiders don’t understand the economy, my experience is in leadership. Santorum: we don’t need a CEO in the White House, we need a leader.

Gingrich: Bain Capital (Romney’s firm) was a story of greed, killed as many jobs as it created. Cited a New York Times article.

Romney: not surprised that the Times did that article, was surprised that anyone on stage would quote it.

Huntsman: Bain is part of his record. Governors (such as himself) will do as president as they did as governor. Pats himself on the back about Utah.

Romney: thinks himself superior because he has worked in the private sector.

Paul – Santorum exchange: Paul called Santorum corrupt – took money from lobbyists, raised debt ceiling 5 times, is a big government person. Santorum denied, saying he was attacked by CREW, a George Soros organization, and anyone who hasn’t been attacked by CREW isn’t conservative. Paul: Santorum is a big spender, not conservative.

Perry: Huntsman and I are the only Washington outsiders. The Tea Party should love us.

Huntsman: will push for term limits. I understand China (by implication, no one else does.)

Romney: Unlike me, Obama had no experience as a leader, made mistake after mistake learning on the job.

Perry: My having served in the military is an advantage; Obama doesn’t understand the military.

Gingrich: on being asked about a Paul ad which asserted he dodged the military and wouldn’t understand it, said Dr. Paul says a lot of things. He cited being an army brat taught him a great deal, Newt has taught military history for 32 years to military personnel, and said he didn’t dodge or ask for a deferment, but was in college and wasn’t eligible for the draft, and his father was in combat area at the time.

Paul: asked about racial slurs in his newsletter, said he has explained all that, and it happened a long time ago. Said he understands racism, blacks unfairly prosecuted for crime and drugs. Minorities suffer more. Drug laws unfairly enforced.

After a long break for commercials, George asked Romney a question he thought strange (as did I) — Do states have a constitutional right to ban contraception? I don’t know if this was an oblique reference to Roe vs. Wade, suggesting that abortion is a form of contraception, or if some state is trying to ban condoms or morning after pills. George didn’t explain it very well, and Romney didn’t know what he was talking about.

Romney: no state wants to do it. He turned to Paul and said: ask the expert on the constitution.

Sawyer read a sob story letter from some gay guy saying his marriage should be recognized.

Gingrich: marriage is between a man and a woman, has been for all of history, but nothing should stop gays from forming long term relationships.

Huntsman: would support civil unions.

Santorum: marriage amendment is a federal issue, he supports it. Same sex adoption a state issue.

Romney: civil union OK.

Gingrich: on same sex adoption, Catholic adoption suppressed in New Hampshire because they don’t accept same sex couples. Federal govt. forces them out of adoptive services. It’s bigotry. (He received the most applause of the night when he condemned this.)

Perry: Obama administration is fighting a war against religion. He’ll stop it.

Huntsman: Time to bring troops home from Afghanistan. Would leave 10,000 to counter terrorism. A civil war is coming there.

Gingrich: there are serious region-wide problems. Cited Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Libya, etc. Says a new overall strategy is needed.

Santorum. Agreed with Newt. Obama has made many mistakes. Says he sanitizes the language so that the enemy (Muslim extremists) aren’t called by name.

Perry: would send troops back into Iraq. (gasp) My note — since Iraq doesn’t want us, that would require another invasion. This was probably a gaffe by Perry. Perry says Iran will move into Iraq at light speed.

Gingrich: disagreed,

Romney: would only send troops if American interests are involved.

Paul: sanctions only lead to war.

Santorum: the Iranian people like Americans; Obama turned his back on them.

Romney: government must encourage private sector.

Gingrich: govt. should be technologically smart, need systematic investment in infrastructure.

Various candidates: asked how we should bring back jobs, cited the usual things: cut corporate taxes, regulations, etc.

Huntsman: China’s GDP is falling, Wall Street Journal endorses his tax plan.

Romney: Obama put America on road to decline.

Gingrich: Romney is a Masschusetts moderate, and is cautious, even timid.

Santorum: Romney is not bold. Romney used the term “middle class”. Santorum thinks that’s class warfare rhetoric.

Romney: uttered platitudes on open markets, deregulation.

Huntsman: we must succeed in relationship with China. Must sort through trade issues with all countries.

Romney: China is a bad actor, they manipulate currency, steal our intellectual property, etc. He would rein them in.

Huntsman: Romney would start a trade war.

Romney: China has much more to lose in a trade war, they wouldn’t start one. Cited the small sales to China, their huge sales to us. (My note: cutting off goods from China would cause American prices to go up, but might cause enormous problems for the Chinese.)

My take: the debate wasn’t managed well, questions didn’t produce new information. Debate went over old ground. Stephanopoulos may have acted like a Democrat in posing his questions: Stephanopoulos may have been unfair.

 

*********************************

On Sunday morning, January 8th, NBC held a one-hour debate in the time slot for “Meet the Press”, or as Rush Limbaugh calls it, “Meet the Depressed.”

This was moderated by David Gregory, and was one of the best-run debates of the campaign. Gregory’s rapid delivery seemed to entice the candidates to speak rapidly in answering, and his questions were good, in my opinion. Some new ground was covered.

From my notes:

Asked who of the group would make the best candidate:

Gingrich: not Romney. He is relatively timid, is a Massachusetts moderate, and will have a tough time beating Obama. I’m a Reagan conservative.

Romney: (defending) I cut taxes 19 times, New Hampshire knows I did a good job in a neighboring state; several governors have endorsed me.

Santorum: if Romney’s record was so good, why didn’t he run for re-election? When he and Romney ran at the same time in 1994, why didn’t Romney stand for conservative principles?

Romney: It’s not unusual that career politicians should want to stay in office, but he is not a career politician.

Gingrich: (after Romney talked too long) the red light doesn’t mean much to Romney; would like him to stop the pious baloney; he’s been running since the 90’s.

Romney: proud of my service.

Paul: Romney supported TARP; no one is talking about real cuts.

Perry: I have the best chance to beat Obama and re-invigorate the Tea Party. When I look at the rest of the candidates, I see nothing but insiders. Insiders caused all our current problems in spending.

Romney: I will stand up for Republican ideas.

Huntsman: We are in an age of austerity. Romney’s spin confuses the audience; indignant because Romney criticized him for putting the country first. (So Huntsman said – I rather doubt it)

Romney: Huntsman worked for Obama.

Huntsman: this nation is divided because of attitudes like that; agrees with Ryan plan; would means test entitlements.

Santorum: agrees with means testing entitlements;likes food stamp, Medicaid block granted to states.

Gingrich: likes the Ryan-Wyden plan because it contains options;national columnists and journalists seem to like stories involving pain for the American people;Newt doesn’t;would cut the fraud and embezzlement from Medicare.

Perry: would eliminate commerce,education, and energy departments. Continuation of the joke about his forgetting the 3rd one.

Santorum: would impose immediate means testing of entitlements, for all; his plan similar to the existing one for federal employees (premium support and choice) which works well; in his plan seniors would have choices.

Romney: right choice is to shrink government.

Huntsman: my tax plan endorsed by Wall Street Journal;

Gingrich: asked about dealing as president with a hostile congress, said he negotiated successfully with Bill Clinton.

Romney: worked with legislature containing 85% Democrats; developed respect for each other; they granted him unilateral power to cut spending; thinks he can always find common ground.

Paul: dodged an assertion that he was ineffective in the House – Steph. said Paul originated 620 bills in his career, only 4 made it to debate, only 1 adopted into law. Paul: in his spending cuts would go back to the 2006 budget.

Santorum: Paul has always been in the margin of the House, would be very dangerous president.

(Here, a few minutes of some trite stuff I’ll skip over) then:

Perry: biggest problem is congress; they are out of control; I’d change them to part-time. (my note – congress would have to vote on that. Not very damned likely to happen – therefore, it’s meaningless noise.)

At this point, a couple of New Hampshire yokels (journalists, actually) were brought in to ask questions.

Q. Obama administration recently cut support for poor families to obtain heating oil. Would you continue that?

Huntsman: country should fix energy problems; oil distribution monopoly (whatever that is) is bad, would favor other forms of energy.

Q. How do you feel about subsidies?

Paul: subsidies generally bad.

Romney: don’t need fed to solve all problems; send these programs back to states; block grants.

Q. having to do with gays or gay marriage: (remember, New Hampshire allows gay marriage)

Romney: I don’t discriminate, marriage is between a man and a woman.

Santorum: wants all to be respected, but supports marriage amendment; gays should be treated like everyone else, have no special “rights” as such.

Q. on right to work laws:

Perry: right to work is a federal issue.

Q. what contributions do unions make?

Romney: training; government unions pay scale should reflect private sector pay for same jobs.

Gingrich: removing restrictions on energy production would make prices fall.

Q. What to do about cross-state pollution laws?

Romney: Need to keep air clean, so some regulations needed; natural gas for power production is cleaner than coal.

Q. You would replace the EPA with an “Environmental Solutions Agency”. What is that?

Gingrich: EPA has become increasingly dictatorial, bad for business; talked about their attempted regulation of dust in dry areas; his new agency would take effect on business into account.

(skip trite exchanges)

Paul: Health care is a “right”? Entitlements are not rights. I don’t like “rights”.

Huntsman: what the presidency needs is real leadership (me); will attack the “trust deficit”.

Q. Why can’t we live with nuclear Iran?

Santorum: because they’re governed by a religion which likes martyrdom, death not a deterrent; Pakistan not a theocracy.

Here, a heavyweight exchange between Gingrich and Romney. Gingrich complained of untruth in Romney’s PAC ads against him, Romney said he didn’t control them but they were true and cited his “being kicked out of the House, being fined $300,000, etc. Gingrich denied that it was a fine or that he was kicked out. Gingrich’s PAC is releasing a 27 minute film about Bain Capital, Romney’s firm, and their predatory business practices – buying companies in trouble, selling off their assets, dissolving them, and putting employees on the streets.

There was a bit more, but nothing major. This debate lasted an hour and 27 minutes, including breaks. This may have been the strongest criticism Romney has received. Gingrich faced him and accused him of dishonesty. Romney gave as good as he got. I’m not sure who won this one. Santorum was strong, Perry made no gaffes, Romney was smooth, Gingrich was strong and confrontational.

New Hampshire is probably a battle for 2nd and 3rd. Romney will win, the others are fighting for crumbs. If Romney doesn’t do better than 30% or doesn’t have at least a 10% lead over whoever is in 2nd place, he might be seriously hurt. Perhaps Paul will make a strong showing, but he is almost irrelevant. Huntsman has staked all on New Hampshire, was not particularly impressive in the two debates. He might drop out if he finishes last or polls less than 10%. Perry will most likely finish last, most certainly less than 10%. Less than 5% might make him think seriously about dropping out.