protest

2nd SC Debate

by asmwizard

CNN sponsored the 2nd debate in Charleston, SC on Thursday, January 19.  John King was the moderator.  The four candidates looked almost lonely on the stage, since Perry had dropped out that morning.  The crowd was very large.

Note – anything below in parentheses is my opinion.

King began with Newt, asking him about his 2nd wife Marianne, who interviewed with ABC last Friday night.  The report was somehow made available to CNN.  ABC will run it tonight for the first time on Nightline.  Marianne accused him of asking her for an “open marriage” at the time he was having an affair with Callista.  Newt immediately reacted in anger, saying he was appalled that CNN would open a presidential debate with such trash; saying he had gone through pain, and called it “despicable” that CNN made the decision to run it.  He said he was tired of the elite media attacking Republicans.

((My note: This was a huge moment. Newt may have won the debate, even the nomination, on his opening response to the question about his previous marriage. No one else on the stage is capable of such a powerful response. I don’t think anyone else would have dared to say it, or could have said it so eloquently. He might have won — or lost, the nomination based on his scolding of ABC, CNN, and John King. CNN, ABC, and King deserved it. I think it was the most memorable moment of the debates this far. Most such moments have come from Newt. I’m not sure how to evaluate the effect on the national audience. I know some of the Charleston audience stood and clapped. ))

Santorum was asked to comment, said people should make their own judgments; I am essentially perfect.  Paul wondered about the big corporations that own the media; Romney said it is not a real issue.

? Paul was asked for 3 things he would do as president to get people back to work; get government out of the way; sound currency; fewer regulations.  Gingrich said he’d repeal Dodd-Frank; take advantage of the natural gas off the coast of SC, and use some of the money to modernize the Port of Charleston; and overhaul the Corps of Engineers.

? Gingrich – what did Romney do wrong at Bain?  Georgetown (SC) Steel was a firm he closed down; Romney ought to explain his record at Bain.  Romney – capitalism works; he’d stimulate energy production in the US; would get rid of Obama’s crony capitalism, such as at GM and Solyndra.

? Santorum – on what he’d do for jobs – support capitalism; Obama wants to make everyone dependent; I’d cut taxes to zero for manufacturing firms.

? Paul – should federal govt. give special help to returning veterans? – Some.  Santorum – help veterans; he’s appalled that Obama is cutting veteran benefits while refusing to do anything with entitlements.  Romney – it should be done at the state level.  Gingrich – GI Bill after WWII and tax cuts made the economy take off.

? Romney – can Obamacare actually be reversed?  I will sign executive order on the first day granting waivers to every state; complete repeal will require friendly congress; after he eliminates Obamacare, he will replace it with market-oriented solutions. Gingrich – should repeal all of it; as for the provision that extends insurance for children at home up to 26 years old, elect us and your kids will have jobs and can go out and buy their own.  Santorum – trivial attack on Romney, accusing Romneycare being just like Obamacare; trivial attack on Newt saying he supported individual mandates up to 2008.  Here Santorum argued back and forth over the allegation.  Gingrich and Santorum then went back and forth over the mandate.  (This was largely wasted debate time.)  Paul – it’s likely we can’t fully defeat Obamacare; by the way, Santorum voted for Bush’s drug plan.

? Santorum – Gingrich recently suggested that it would be better if Santorum and Perry would drop out of the race.  Santorum – Being grandiose has never been a problem for Newt; he’s full of ideas, but we always have to worry about what he will say; I beat him 2-0 in Iowa and NH; he can’t manage anything; I’m steady.  Gingrich – The next president will have grandiose problems and will need to be able to handle them.  I can do that; I engineered the first Republican majority in the House since 1928.  I did this and that.  Santorum – (becoming really vicious) Newt has an idea a minute but doesn’t have major management skills; was evicted from the speakership by Republicans after 3 years; knew about the check kiting in the House by members for years but didn’t dare to do anything about it.  G – (defended himself.)  Romney – you’ve just heard why an outsider (like me) is needed; it’s amazing how much credit candidates take for things they play only a small part in; Newt was only mentioned in Reagan’s diary once.

? (for all) When will you release your taxes?  Gingrich – I released mine an hour ago, it’s on my website at www.newt.org;  Romney – I’ll release mine when they’re done; I pay a lot of taxes.  Santorum – I do my own taxes; my taxes are on my home computer; when I get home, I’ll release them. Romney – I don’t apologize for my success.

? Santorum – Apple Computer employs 500,000 in China, only about 40,000 in the US.  What would you do to bring those jobs back to the US?  I have a made in the USA policy; I advocate zero taxes on manufacturing firms. 

? Paul – How would you revive “Made in America”?  When we send money to China, they just use it to buy our debt, so it’s OK; We see less cost to consumers because of overseas manufacturing; We have more manufacturing in Right to Work states; I’m big on RTW.

? Gingrich – What’s your take on SOFA?  (The internet restriction bill now in Congress). I favor internet freedom; any company whose rights are compromised has the right to sue; SOFA the wrong thing to do.  Romney – Newt had it right; I favor a narrow restriction on the violators.  Paul – I opposed the law.  Santorum – I opposed the law, but internet can’t be totally free; piracy from overseas must be stopped.

? (for all) – If you could go back to the beginning of your campaign and do one thing differently, what would it be?  Gingrich – I’d skip the first 3 months, when I tried to be a traditional candidate; since then, I’ve run an idea-based, internet-oriented campaign.  Romney – spent less time talking about other candidates and more time on President Obama.  Santorum – wouldn’t change a thing; it’s awesome to be one of the 4 remaining candidates.  Paul – trying to better express myself; speak more slowly.

? Gingrich – You’ve mentioned a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants.  How would you handle the problem?  Close the border; make English the only official language; modernize the visa system; make it easier to deport illegals – 2 weeks instead of months (lots of luck on this one); guest worker verification system (essentially an on-line registry) outsourced to a credit card company like VISA or MasterCard, who are expert at catching fraud; For people already here, if they’ve been here 25 years, have paid their bills, committed no crimes, and have an American family sponsoring them, I’d allow them to stay.  (I doubt if many could jump all those hurdles.)  Romney – not a tough problem; I’d set up a register of residents (probably my phrase); I wouldn’t round them all up and ship them out.  (Other countries, such as Sweden and Mexico, have an online list – a registry – of all citizens.  I support the idea, but there are privacy buffs who would be horrified.)   Santorum – Newt’s idea bad; anyone here illegally 25 years probably stole their ID; Romney – we’re a nation of legal immigrants.  Paul – about 25% of illegals work for private individuals, would you punish them? Gingrich – as president I would immediately instruct my Attorney General to drop all immigration lawsuits against states such as Arizona and South Carolina. 

(Here some discussion of abortion, sniping back and forth between Gingrich, Romney, and Santorum.)

? (for all) One minute summary of why you should be the nominee.  Paul – SC known for respect of Liberty.  Gingrich – If a Saul Alinski radical and incompetent Obama is reelected, it’s all over; we must have a team victory, so we control House and Senate, to be most effective.  Romney – Pursuit of Happiness makes our country powerful; I like capitalism.  Santorum – I agree with Romney; I’m the best man to take on Obama; (Here, he actually bashed Romney and Gingrich) Vote for me.

++++++++++ debate ended.  It lasted about 2 hours.

The three remaining candidates are remorselessly determined to be president, and will do anything, say anything to win.  None will give in as long as there is any reasonable chance.  The remainder of the campaign will be bitterly fought.  Of course I exempt Paul, who is really a protest candidate and has no chance whatever to be the nominee.  

I may regret my words later, but here I’ll give my assessment of each candidate at this point, just before the SC election:

Romney – no longer regarded by everyone as the inevitable candidate.  Has been very smooth for almost all his debate exposure up to now.  He’s made very few gaffes.  He sounds like a conservative, says all the correct things, but I fear he might turn left after his election. 

Santorum – I still regard him as not ready, too inexperienced to be president.  His sniping at the other candidates, often repeating the same things, is often juvenile and petty; his bragging over his accomplishments as a Senator are not always convincing.  Still, he is conservative and bright.  He might not be a total disaster as president.  He is the dark horse, and Gingrich and Romney may destroy each other.

Gingrich – I see him as a brilliant, powerful man, the right person to lead at this critical time, although he made many enemies as Speaker – among establishment conservatives, who are barely center right, and of course he was terrifically attacked by Democrats, because he was effective against them.  Like Winston Churchill, his personality is complex, his flaws are many, but I believe he will be by far the most effective president in reversing the trend to the left. 

Paul – his simplistic ideas and his unwavering support of the unmodified constitution resonate with many, and he should be given a chance to speak at the convention.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Huckabee Presidential Forum

by asmwizard

The forum of December 3, 2011 was not a debate.  Mike Huckabee’s idea was interesting.  Give each candidate exactly 11 minutes, with a final one-minute summary at the end.  The questioners were state attorneys general, from 3 states.  The general topic was the relationship between the federal government and the states.

Herman Cain, having dropped out of the race earlier that day, was not present, nor was John Huntsman.  The six candidates were Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Michelle Bachmann, and the Ricks – Perry and Santorum.  The 3 questioners – all lawyers – posed some but not all tough questions. 

Newt’s most difficult test was on his immigration ideas – having a local board select which long-term illegals can stay was questioned, and rightfully so.  He was also questioned on his initial support of a federal mandate for insurance.  He handled the questions well and wasn’t hurt too much.  For the second time, I heard him refer to President Obama as a “Saul Alinski radical.”  In my view, though arguably true, this is a mistake.  Such references should be saved until direct debates between Newt and Obama.

Romney did quite well.  He called the EPA a tool in the hands of the president to crush fossil fuels in favor of renewables.  He would eliminate the NLRB.  While harshly criticizing the Department of Education, he would continue to test kids.

Perry said some interesting things.  He would not support a national right-to-work law, would leave that to the states.  He believes the federal government should reimburse states for their expense in dealing with illegal aliens.  He wants to amend the constitution to have shorter terms for Supreme Court judges, doesn’t like appointment for life as it is now.  As said earlier, he wants congress to meet every other year.

Bachmann also did well.  She favors a federal law enforcing right-to-work in all states.  She confirmed she would deport all illegal aliens without exception.   She would abolish the Department of Education, and supports the amendment for human life, defining a fetus as human.

Ron Paul’s performance was terrible.  He came across (to me) as cranky and crazy.  His opposition to the Patriot Act would strip tools from the federal which give them the ability to stop acts of terror before they happen.  He thinks terrorism is a crime, not a way.

Santorum did fairly well.  He said the government does things to hurt families, citing aid to unmarried mothers which results in couples not marrying so they can continue to receive government money.   He cited EPA regulations that hurt states.  He said the president has an obligation to enforce the law, and supports the Patriot Act.

In my view, the candidates are over-exposed.   This is the most heavily televised pre-primary season of all time.  There are currently 4 remaining events this month, 3 to be held in Iowa, and the Huntsman-Gingrich debate to be held in New Hampshire.   Two of these events were arranged within the past few days, as was the Huckabee Forum.   Perhaps the most interesting is the Donald Trump debate, coming up on December 27, a week before the Iowa Caucus.   The Donald says that sometime after the debate, he will endorse one of the candidates.      

Internet danger?

by asmwizard

With mankind’s normal tendencies, an absolute democracy might be a hell on earth for minorities – simply because the majority would vote goodies for themselves, and the minority would pay for them.  It would be a form of tyranny.  The Internet makes an absolute democracy feasible, in theory.  A new law could be posted up, everyone with an internet connection could vote, and the President (if you still have one) could sign the law within a couple of days.  You wouldn’t need a Congress.  But, it’s probably a bad idea.  Like Congress, the general public isn’t very smart, in fact, the public might even be more stupid, if that’s possible.  Unintended consequences would pop up all over the place.  We, the public, would wreck our country in no time, even without Obama’s help.

Internet democracy of a different kind is moving forward in several ways right now, and the results are sometimes good but potentially horrible.  Good?  The Tea Party movement was enhanced and re-enforced by internet.  One of their principal websites is  www.teaparty.org.  Not so good? The Occupy Wall Street movement (and all the other locations they occupied) was begun by a radical Canadian magazine which set up www.occupywallst.org  Now, the various Occupy movements come together at OccupyTogether.org, promising even more disruption and chaos.  Of course, what’s good and what’s not good depend on your point of view, but if you think Occupy is good, you might want to seek psychiatric help.

More of not so good?  The Left is planning to disrupt the Republican National Convention in Tampa: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Occupy-Tampa-for-The-National-Republican-Convention/238668532853294?sk=info.  Congress has already allocated 50 million dollars for security in Tampa.  That might not be enough.

Horrible?  Potentially, there could be a 3rd party movement being set up – on a website – which could help re-elect Obama.  Americans Elect 2012 at www.americanselect.org  is reported by Senator Joe Lieberman to be trying to get on the ballots of all 50 states.  Their intention is to bypass the two main political parties and choose their own candidates. 

On this website, “delegates” – i.e., those who join the movement – can list issues and suggest solutions, which will be voted on to create a platform.  They will eventually vote to nominate candidates, in effect holding a primary of their own, then put them on the state ballots.  Potentially horrible is that while they aren’t likely to elect their own candidate as president, they could take enough votes from Republican votes to re-elect Obama.  Of course, they might take more from Obama.  No one can be sure at this point.

Watch out for the internet.  It has already produced disturbing innovations, and more may be on the way.

 

 

 

 

How the Republican primaries could play out

by asmwizard

The primary season kicks off in Iowa on January 3, about 5 weeks from the date of this writing.  It ends on July 14 in Nebraska.  That’s almost six and a half months of drama.  You might look at it as an auto race with eight cars, with leaders Romney and Gingrich in the first two, with the others starting behind them.  That’s because Romney and Gingrich lead the polls at the present time.  But the primary season is much more complicated than that.  There are primary elections or caucuses in 50 states, the islands of Puerto Rico, Guam, the Virgin Islands, the Northern Marianas, and American Samoa, plus the District of Columbia.  Each state or island sets it’s own rules, and there are many variations of how the entity’s delegates to the Republican National Convention are chosen.

A great deal can happen in the weeks before Iowa.  There are two debates scheduled in December, and no one knows how many scandals may surface, or how many gaffes the candidates will commit.   One or two candidates may step down before Iowa. 

You can see the schedule at Republican Primary/Caucus schedule (subject to change, but mostly set in stone).  If you examine it, you might pick out 5 portions: January, February, March 6 (Super Tuesday), the rest of March and April taken together, and the drawn-out May-June period. July 14 is as an afterthought.   Let’s look at each in turn.

January is the kick-off month, with Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida.  The first 3 states have 28, 12, and 28 delegates, respectively.  These elections assign delegates in proportion to the vote,  If you go by the current Rasmussen polls (as of November 30), where Newt has 28%, Mitt 12% in Iowa, Newt 24%, Mitt 32% in New Hampshire, and Newt has 38%, Mitt 15% in South Carolina, you might get something like Newt 21 votes, Mitt 12 going into Florida.  But, Florida’s primary will be held on January 31, and it is winner-take-all for 50 votes.  Newt could jump to something like a 71-12 lead.  

However, the polls don’t happen in a vacuum.  There are no less than 6 nationally televised debates scheduled in January, in the states where the next primary is to be held. Republican debate schedule 2012. Those debates could elevate some candidates and drop others in the esteem of the voters.  Candidates could drop out during the month, when they see how hopeless it is for them.  Bachmann and Santorum, for example, have spent enormous effort in Iowa, and are likely to be very discouraged with a bad showing there.

Winning Iowa will bring prestige, much more important at that point than delegate votes.  New Hampshire is next, with it’s paltry 12 votes.  Romney leads, Newt is second.  The others will be hoping to finish 3rd. 

Then comes South Carolina, where Newt is favored at this point.  If he wins Iowa, takes 2nd in New Hampshire, and wins South Carolina decisively, the voters of Florida are likely to favor him even more.  He currently leads in Florida 41 to Mitt’s 17.  Florida’s 50 winner-take-all votes will define the leader going into  February.  Of course, at that point Romney or someone else could be the leader.

There are 8 elections in February, assigning 219 votes, of which 59 votes are winner-take-all in two states, the others are proportional.  If the election is likely to be a landslide, we could see that shaping up in February.  Strangely, there is only one debate, set for February 22.  During this month we are likely to be bombarded by candidate’s TV ads.  We will also see a huge amount of negative commentary by the Democrats and network media.

Then, Super Tuesday, perhaps the most exciting day of the primary season.  Leading up to it, there are debates set for March 1 and March 5.  Just before Super Tuesday, there is a Saturday election on March 3, in Washington.  It is winner-take-all and assigns 43 delegates, so it’s important.  But there are 11 elections on Tuesday March 6, assigning 556 delegates.  One candidate could have an insurmountable lead after that. But, the race could still be competitive. 

The March through April period has only one additional debate, March 19.  No more are currently scheduled.  But, the primary season drags on, with 18 elections. 

There are 12 elections scheduled for May through June, and the last on July 14. California’s 172 votes will be assigned winner-take-all on June 5.  

The dates given above could be changed by state party officials in some cases, or by the state legislatures in others.  But I’ve given the general plan.

Out of the 2288 delegates to the convention, 1145 are needed to nominate.  This number could be attained by May 1. 

Note that the Left is attempting to organize a massive, probably violent protest in Tampa, where the 2012 Republican Convention will be held the week of August 27.  It could be modeled on the Occupy Movement, but seems to threaten more violence.  Here’s a story on that:  Protest expected   It isn’t hard to find a website: Leftist Facebook page and the Black Panthers: Planned Black Panther violence.  If I were governor, I might call out the Florida National Guard to maintain public order during that time. 

 

Occupying Wall Street

by asmwizard

(As published in The Leavenworth Times, November 1, 2011.)

Note – I may have gone too far with “mob rat”.  “mob stooge” might be a better term. 

What if your job was – to protest?  To be a part of the Occupy Wall Street mob.  What would your daily duties be?  What equipment would you need?  How would you live?

I call it a job if you’re paid to do it.  Glenn Beck (irritatingly right most of the time) said on Fox News Friday that some of the mob members are being paid several hundred dollars a week to lead the mob by example.  OK, it’s a vast left-wing conspiracy.  But let’s just concentrate on you, the typical mob rat.  Let’s say you aren’t being paid, you joined on your own.

You, the mob member, probably aren’t a deep thinker.  Since the movement has no declared goals other than to whine at certain realities — corporations operate for profit, and therefore must be greedy;  some people are paid more than you; big government may have to shrink and cut your entitlements.  Some might recognize that mob action can’t do much about those things.  But that’s not you.  

How were you recruited?  Probably, by looking at a website, such as OccupyWallStreet.org.  Or possibly by Facebook, from a friend.  All you needed to know was provided: your slogans, the time, the place, the fuzzy goals.  You were already angry at the world, you thought this was the way to rage at it.  So, you made up your mind to travel to New York.

What equipment did you need?  A bedroll, possibly a tent.  Warm clothes.  Sun block.  Money or a credit card, to travel.  A few foodstuffs.  Cardboard, sticks, markers, and tape to make signs.  A like-minded friend or two to go with you.

When you get there?  Find an open space to camp out.  Pitch your tent.  Make a sign with something like “**** the rich!”  Call home on your cell to see if mom can send more money.  Sing songs or talk until very late.  Finally, lie down and sleep on the hard ground. 

What happens each day?   You get up.  Build a fire, or better, join someone else’s.  Breakfast on whatever is available.  Around nine, follow the leaders (the ones with the bull horns, perhaps) to this day’s hangout point.  Stand around, in the group, waving your sign, all day.  If anyone comes by, engage them in conversation.  Annoy them.   Impede their progress.  Call them Capitalist Pigs, or something similar.  Hope it doesn’t rain.  Have a candy bar for lunch, or more – maybe some sympathizer will bring pizza and soda.  Talk with your fellow mob rats.  Laugh.  Yell.  Sing.  If there’s a nearby port-a-potty or public toilet, use it as needed.  If not . . . what the Hell.

When darkness comes, back to your tent, the songs, the campfire, the hard ground. 

The next day, the same thing, perhaps a different protest place, such as Times Square.  Hope you don’t get arrested.  Or, maybe, you hope you do.  That might be a hoot.

It’s a great life.  It makes you feel as if you’re accomplishing something.  What, you don’t know, but it beats working or going to school.