South Carolina

2nd SC Debate

by asmwizard

CNN sponsored the 2nd debate in Charleston, SC on Thursday, January 19.  John King was the moderator.  The four candidates looked almost lonely on the stage, since Perry had dropped out that morning.  The crowd was very large.

Note – anything below in parentheses is my opinion.

King began with Newt, asking him about his 2nd wife Marianne, who interviewed with ABC last Friday night.  The report was somehow made available to CNN.  ABC will run it tonight for the first time on Nightline.  Marianne accused him of asking her for an “open marriage” at the time he was having an affair with Callista.  Newt immediately reacted in anger, saying he was appalled that CNN would open a presidential debate with such trash; saying he had gone through pain, and called it “despicable” that CNN made the decision to run it.  He said he was tired of the elite media attacking Republicans.

((My note: This was a huge moment. Newt may have won the debate, even the nomination, on his opening response to the question about his previous marriage. No one else on the stage is capable of such a powerful response. I don’t think anyone else would have dared to say it, or could have said it so eloquently. He might have won — or lost, the nomination based on his scolding of ABC, CNN, and John King. CNN, ABC, and King deserved it. I think it was the most memorable moment of the debates this far. Most such moments have come from Newt. I’m not sure how to evaluate the effect on the national audience. I know some of the Charleston audience stood and clapped. ))

Santorum was asked to comment, said people should make their own judgments; I am essentially perfect.  Paul wondered about the big corporations that own the media; Romney said it is not a real issue.

? Paul was asked for 3 things he would do as president to get people back to work; get government out of the way; sound currency; fewer regulations.  Gingrich said he’d repeal Dodd-Frank; take advantage of the natural gas off the coast of SC, and use some of the money to modernize the Port of Charleston; and overhaul the Corps of Engineers.

? Gingrich – what did Romney do wrong at Bain?  Georgetown (SC) Steel was a firm he closed down; Romney ought to explain his record at Bain.  Romney – capitalism works; he’d stimulate energy production in the US; would get rid of Obama’s crony capitalism, such as at GM and Solyndra.

? Santorum – on what he’d do for jobs – support capitalism; Obama wants to make everyone dependent; I’d cut taxes to zero for manufacturing firms.

? Paul – should federal govt. give special help to returning veterans? – Some.  Santorum – help veterans; he’s appalled that Obama is cutting veteran benefits while refusing to do anything with entitlements.  Romney – it should be done at the state level.  Gingrich – GI Bill after WWII and tax cuts made the economy take off.

? Romney – can Obamacare actually be reversed?  I will sign executive order on the first day granting waivers to every state; complete repeal will require friendly congress; after he eliminates Obamacare, he will replace it with market-oriented solutions. Gingrich – should repeal all of it; as for the provision that extends insurance for children at home up to 26 years old, elect us and your kids will have jobs and can go out and buy their own.  Santorum – trivial attack on Romney, accusing Romneycare being just like Obamacare; trivial attack on Newt saying he supported individual mandates up to 2008.  Here Santorum argued back and forth over the allegation.  Gingrich and Santorum then went back and forth over the mandate.  (This was largely wasted debate time.)  Paul – it’s likely we can’t fully defeat Obamacare; by the way, Santorum voted for Bush’s drug plan.

? Santorum – Gingrich recently suggested that it would be better if Santorum and Perry would drop out of the race.  Santorum – Being grandiose has never been a problem for Newt; he’s full of ideas, but we always have to worry about what he will say; I beat him 2-0 in Iowa and NH; he can’t manage anything; I’m steady.  Gingrich – The next president will have grandiose problems and will need to be able to handle them.  I can do that; I engineered the first Republican majority in the House since 1928.  I did this and that.  Santorum – (becoming really vicious) Newt has an idea a minute but doesn’t have major management skills; was evicted from the speakership by Republicans after 3 years; knew about the check kiting in the House by members for years but didn’t dare to do anything about it.  G – (defended himself.)  Romney – you’ve just heard why an outsider (like me) is needed; it’s amazing how much credit candidates take for things they play only a small part in; Newt was only mentioned in Reagan’s diary once.

? (for all) When will you release your taxes?  Gingrich – I released mine an hour ago, it’s on my website at www.newt.org;  Romney – I’ll release mine when they’re done; I pay a lot of taxes.  Santorum – I do my own taxes; my taxes are on my home computer; when I get home, I’ll release them. Romney – I don’t apologize for my success.

? Santorum – Apple Computer employs 500,000 in China, only about 40,000 in the US.  What would you do to bring those jobs back to the US?  I have a made in the USA policy; I advocate zero taxes on manufacturing firms. 

? Paul – How would you revive “Made in America”?  When we send money to China, they just use it to buy our debt, so it’s OK; We see less cost to consumers because of overseas manufacturing; We have more manufacturing in Right to Work states; I’m big on RTW.

? Gingrich – What’s your take on SOFA?  (The internet restriction bill now in Congress). I favor internet freedom; any company whose rights are compromised has the right to sue; SOFA the wrong thing to do.  Romney – Newt had it right; I favor a narrow restriction on the violators.  Paul – I opposed the law.  Santorum – I opposed the law, but internet can’t be totally free; piracy from overseas must be stopped.

? (for all) – If you could go back to the beginning of your campaign and do one thing differently, what would it be?  Gingrich – I’d skip the first 3 months, when I tried to be a traditional candidate; since then, I’ve run an idea-based, internet-oriented campaign.  Romney – spent less time talking about other candidates and more time on President Obama.  Santorum – wouldn’t change a thing; it’s awesome to be one of the 4 remaining candidates.  Paul – trying to better express myself; speak more slowly.

? Gingrich – You’ve mentioned a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants.  How would you handle the problem?  Close the border; make English the only official language; modernize the visa system; make it easier to deport illegals – 2 weeks instead of months (lots of luck on this one); guest worker verification system (essentially an on-line registry) outsourced to a credit card company like VISA or MasterCard, who are expert at catching fraud; For people already here, if they’ve been here 25 years, have paid their bills, committed no crimes, and have an American family sponsoring them, I’d allow them to stay.  (I doubt if many could jump all those hurdles.)  Romney – not a tough problem; I’d set up a register of residents (probably my phrase); I wouldn’t round them all up and ship them out.  (Other countries, such as Sweden and Mexico, have an online list – a registry – of all citizens.  I support the idea, but there are privacy buffs who would be horrified.)   Santorum – Newt’s idea bad; anyone here illegally 25 years probably stole their ID; Romney – we’re a nation of legal immigrants.  Paul – about 25% of illegals work for private individuals, would you punish them? Gingrich – as president I would immediately instruct my Attorney General to drop all immigration lawsuits against states such as Arizona and South Carolina. 

(Here some discussion of abortion, sniping back and forth between Gingrich, Romney, and Santorum.)

? (for all) One minute summary of why you should be the nominee.  Paul – SC known for respect of Liberty.  Gingrich – If a Saul Alinski radical and incompetent Obama is reelected, it’s all over; we must have a team victory, so we control House and Senate, to be most effective.  Romney – Pursuit of Happiness makes our country powerful; I like capitalism.  Santorum – I agree with Romney; I’m the best man to take on Obama; (Here, he actually bashed Romney and Gingrich) Vote for me.

++++++++++ debate ended.  It lasted about 2 hours.

The three remaining candidates are remorselessly determined to be president, and will do anything, say anything to win.  None will give in as long as there is any reasonable chance.  The remainder of the campaign will be bitterly fought.  Of course I exempt Paul, who is really a protest candidate and has no chance whatever to be the nominee.  

I may regret my words later, but here I’ll give my assessment of each candidate at this point, just before the SC election:

Romney – no longer regarded by everyone as the inevitable candidate.  Has been very smooth for almost all his debate exposure up to now.  He’s made very few gaffes.  He sounds like a conservative, says all the correct things, but I fear he might turn left after his election. 

Santorum – I still regard him as not ready, too inexperienced to be president.  His sniping at the other candidates, often repeating the same things, is often juvenile and petty; his bragging over his accomplishments as a Senator are not always convincing.  Still, he is conservative and bright.  He might not be a total disaster as president.  He is the dark horse, and Gingrich and Romney may destroy each other.

Gingrich – I see him as a brilliant, powerful man, the right person to lead at this critical time, although he made many enemies as Speaker – among establishment conservatives, who are barely center right, and of course he was terrifically attacked by Democrats, because he was effective against them.  Like Winston Churchill, his personality is complex, his flaws are many, but I believe he will be by far the most effective president in reversing the trend to the left. 

Paul – his simplistic ideas and his unwavering support of the unmodified constitution resonate with many, and he should be given a chance to speak at the convention.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

First SC January debate

by asmwizard

Conducted by Fox News on January 16, Martin Luther King Day.  Moderator, Bret Baier.  Questioners, Juan Williams, Jerry Seib, Kelly Evans.  Attendees, Perry, Santorum, Romney, Gingrich, Paul.  John Huntsman announced earlier in the day that he was suspending his campaign, then endorsed Romney.  A huge crowd attended in a very large auditorium.

In my opinion, Gingrich was the clear winner, getting very large crowd response; Perry, Romney, and Santorum tied for 2nd.  Paul was glib and tried to look more moderate, except for foreign policy.  Romney stuttered a few times, was not quite as smooth or confident as in previous debates, but probably didn’t hurt himself very much.  Perry may have had his best debate.  Santorum scored some points, was not at all deferential to Gingrich as he had been in past debates.

Fox News has some articles available which should persist: Gingrich spars  Romney put on defense

There was sharp questioning, my notes are very approximate, as I didn’t have time to jot down the questions.  I’ll try to show highlights only:

? Gingrich.  Last September, you vowed to be non-critical of the other candidates.  Why aren’t you now?  G – After the barrage leveled against me, I had to change my approach; Romney’s business record should be explored.

? Romney.  Your record at Bain?  R – 4 of the businesses I created were extremely successful; handled over 100 businesses.

? Perry.  You accused Romney of vulture capitalism.  P – in Georgetown SC Bain picked the company clean; Romney should release his income tax records; Dodd-Frank needs to be repealed, is choking banks.

Romney – the firm in question was a steel mill, hurt by foreign dumping; dumping broke about 40 steel producers about that time; I founded a new steel mill using modern technology that succeeded.

? Paul – your scathingly critical ads on other candidates. Pl – it’s OK if it reflects truth; Santorum voted against right to work.

Santorum – Paul has been quoting left-wing outfits like CREW; I did vote against right to work because my state (PA) was not a right to work state.

? Santorum – you accused Romney’s Super PAC of distorting your record.  R – his PAC accused me of advocating the vote for convicted felons; after a felon has served his time, been released, he deserves to regain his vote.

Romney – a convicted felon remains that all his life, should never be allowed the vote.  (Romney stuttered here.)

Perry – this is a state issue.

? Romney – in New Hampshire, Huntsman called you a “perfectly lubricated weather vane”.  Will you change again?.  R – No. (in so many words)

? Perry – in South Carolina, the federal government is suing to stop voter ID.  Does the fed have a right to do that?  P – Federal govt. has declared war on my home state of Texas and against SC; NLRB ruled against SC and Boeing because it’s a right to work state; As prez, I’ll boost state’s rights; Fed is also at war against organized religion; Obama’s administration is out of control.

? Santorum – would you support extending the jobless benefit by 20 more weeks?  S – not unless they receive training while receiving benefits.

? Gingrich – How many weeks of jobless benefits would you support?  G – All should be tied to training; 99 weeks of school would get you an associate degree.

— Skipping questions and trite responses from Romney and Paul;

? Romney – will you release your tax records?  R – I will, around April.

? Romney – you have a hard policy against illegal immigration.  Are you alienating Latino voters?  R – No; I would veto the Dream Act.

? Santorum – there are currently very high levels of unemployment and poverty in black population.  What would you do about that?  S – studies show if you work before marriage, graduate from high school, and refrain from having children out of wedlock, chances are only 2% you’ll be poor.

Paul – skip

? Gingrich  – aren’t your remarks about blacks working derogatory?  G – No; Black Americans should prefer jobs over food stamps; my daughter’s first job at 13 was as a church janitor, she loved having money; I’ve been publishing a newsletter on the subject; New York City pays ridiculous wages to their janitors because of unions; kids could also work in the cafeteria, library, and office, it would teach them responsibility and give them money which poor families especially need; only the elites despise money.

? Gingrich – didn’t you imply that Blacks are lazy and irresponsible?  (The crowd booed this question by Juan Williams)  G – Obama has put more people on food stamps than any other president in history; I will find a ways to help poor Blacks get a job and own it.  (Standing applause)

Paul – skip his remarks about foreign policy.

? Gingrich – Would you go into a country such as Pakistan and kill someone (such as Bin Laden) without declaring war?  G – Pakistan had to know Obama was living a mile from a huge military base; Andrew Jackson was sabered in the face as a young boy by a British officer, and his idea about dealing with enemies was – kill them!

Paul – we should have a golden rule in dealing with other countries – do with them as we would want them to deal with us; We wouldn’t like it if China came into our country and killed someone.

Romney – Gingrich was right; Barack Obama should not have announced the date of our withdrawal in Iraq; we are under attack, need a strong military.

? Romney – would you negotiate with the Taliban?  No, Biden said we would, and he was wrong to want to do that.

Skip dialogues with Santorum, Paul, Perry.

? Perry – Now that Islamist regime has taken over Turkey, should they be kicked out of NATO? P – cut their foreign aid to zero; Turkey no longer works with us; There should be no space between US and Israel; I served in the Air Force.

Paul – I too served in the Air Force – 5 years; Taliban just wants us out of Afghanistan, Al Quaeda wants to come here and kill us.

? Romney – would you have signed National Defense Act, which allows us to retain Guantanamo prisoners forever? R – foreign terrorists have no rights.

Santorum – American citizens caught as terrorists should have right of Habeas Corpus. 

Skip

? Romney – what are your plans for entitlement reform?  R – Medicare, premium support like Ryan plan.

Gingrich – Social Security voluntary choice between old plan and new plan; personal savings accounts like Chile, (wildly successful there); 95% would take advantage of PSA’s; every American becomes an investor.

? Santorum – Isn’t your plan to cut taxes for manufacturers to zero actually having govt. pick winners and losers?  S – I’d cut business taxes to a flat 17.5%, but manufacturing is where we’re losing jobs, which is why I’d cut taxes for them to zero; Newt’s Social Security plan is fiscally irresponsible because he’d have to borrow money to put in the personal savings accounts.

Gingrich – I’d finance it by cutting out 185 bureaucracies.  (My note – actually, in Chile a portion of payroll tax is paid into the personal account)

Romney – Rick is right; we can’t borrow more money at this time; Newt’s plan is fiscal insanity!  (I thought this was a mean choice of words)

Skip conversation on gun control

? Gingrich – You voted for a bill supporting one child per family in China.  G – wrong.  On Super PAC – I’ve called on mine to edit out that isn’t true.

Romney – we’d all like to see Super PAC’s ended.

? Perry – Now that illegal immigrant rate of border crossing is at a 40 year low, shouldn’t we stop spending money on it?  P – immigration is low because the economy is at a 40 year low.  If I’m president, border will be closed within one year.

? Gingrich – Has the No Child Left Behind Act been a failure?  G – yes; teachers tend to teach the tests; I would eliminate the Department of Education; return control to states; and they should eliminate their departments of education, return control to local school boards.

(end at about 1:50)

Note – there was a running twitter for the TV audience where the audience could indicate whether the candidate answered the question (above the line) or didn’t (below).  Newt and Paul were consistently above the line, Romney was the least here. 

There was a very good Fox News post-debate show with interviews of Romney, Gingrich, and Santorum.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

How the Republican primaries could play out

by asmwizard

The primary season kicks off in Iowa on January 3, about 5 weeks from the date of this writing.  It ends on July 14 in Nebraska.  That’s almost six and a half months of drama.  You might look at it as an auto race with eight cars, with leaders Romney and Gingrich in the first two, with the others starting behind them.  That’s because Romney and Gingrich lead the polls at the present time.  But the primary season is much more complicated than that.  There are primary elections or caucuses in 50 states, the islands of Puerto Rico, Guam, the Virgin Islands, the Northern Marianas, and American Samoa, plus the District of Columbia.  Each state or island sets it’s own rules, and there are many variations of how the entity’s delegates to the Republican National Convention are chosen.

A great deal can happen in the weeks before Iowa.  There are two debates scheduled in December, and no one knows how many scandals may surface, or how many gaffes the candidates will commit.   One or two candidates may step down before Iowa. 

You can see the schedule at Republican Primary/Caucus schedule (subject to change, but mostly set in stone).  If you examine it, you might pick out 5 portions: January, February, March 6 (Super Tuesday), the rest of March and April taken together, and the drawn-out May-June period. July 14 is as an afterthought.   Let’s look at each in turn.

January is the kick-off month, with Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida.  The first 3 states have 28, 12, and 28 delegates, respectively.  These elections assign delegates in proportion to the vote,  If you go by the current Rasmussen polls (as of November 30), where Newt has 28%, Mitt 12% in Iowa, Newt 24%, Mitt 32% in New Hampshire, and Newt has 38%, Mitt 15% in South Carolina, you might get something like Newt 21 votes, Mitt 12 going into Florida.  But, Florida’s primary will be held on January 31, and it is winner-take-all for 50 votes.  Newt could jump to something like a 71-12 lead.  

However, the polls don’t happen in a vacuum.  There are no less than 6 nationally televised debates scheduled in January, in the states where the next primary is to be held. Republican debate schedule 2012. Those debates could elevate some candidates and drop others in the esteem of the voters.  Candidates could drop out during the month, when they see how hopeless it is for them.  Bachmann and Santorum, for example, have spent enormous effort in Iowa, and are likely to be very discouraged with a bad showing there.

Winning Iowa will bring prestige, much more important at that point than delegate votes.  New Hampshire is next, with it’s paltry 12 votes.  Romney leads, Newt is second.  The others will be hoping to finish 3rd. 

Then comes South Carolina, where Newt is favored at this point.  If he wins Iowa, takes 2nd in New Hampshire, and wins South Carolina decisively, the voters of Florida are likely to favor him even more.  He currently leads in Florida 41 to Mitt’s 17.  Florida’s 50 winner-take-all votes will define the leader going into  February.  Of course, at that point Romney or someone else could be the leader.

There are 8 elections in February, assigning 219 votes, of which 59 votes are winner-take-all in two states, the others are proportional.  If the election is likely to be a landslide, we could see that shaping up in February.  Strangely, there is only one debate, set for February 22.  During this month we are likely to be bombarded by candidate’s TV ads.  We will also see a huge amount of negative commentary by the Democrats and network media.

Then, Super Tuesday, perhaps the most exciting day of the primary season.  Leading up to it, there are debates set for March 1 and March 5.  Just before Super Tuesday, there is a Saturday election on March 3, in Washington.  It is winner-take-all and assigns 43 delegates, so it’s important.  But there are 11 elections on Tuesday March 6, assigning 556 delegates.  One candidate could have an insurmountable lead after that. But, the race could still be competitive. 

The March through April period has only one additional debate, March 19.  No more are currently scheduled.  But, the primary season drags on, with 18 elections. 

There are 12 elections scheduled for May through June, and the last on July 14. California’s 172 votes will be assigned winner-take-all on June 5.  

The dates given above could be changed by state party officials in some cases, or by the state legislatures in others.  But I’ve given the general plan.

Out of the 2288 delegates to the convention, 1145 are needed to nominate.  This number could be attained by May 1. 

Note that the Left is attempting to organize a massive, probably violent protest in Tampa, where the 2012 Republican Convention will be held the week of August 27.  It could be modeled on the Occupy Movement, but seems to threaten more violence.  Here’s a story on that:  Protest expected   It isn’t hard to find a website: Leftist Facebook page and the Black Panthers: Planned Black Panther violence.  If I were governor, I might call out the Florida National Guard to maintain public order during that time.