primary

The possibility of a brokered convention

by asmwizard

While Mitt Romney leads in delegates, he has not yet won more than 50% of the delegates from any state.  He did win 50% in Nevada. 

After April 1, all states will award delegates from their polls and caucuses on a winner-take-all basis.  If the other candidates win enough states to keep Romney from winning more than half the delegates (1144), they will arrive at the Republican Convention with a chance for a “brokered” convention.  There, the first roll call of the states would formalize the primary and caucus results.  Even though candidates are pledged to vote for someone, the results could push someone over 1144 and the candidate would have been chosen in the first roll call.  Assuming it does not, then roll calls by state will continue until someone gets 1144.  

In the second and subsequent roll calls, the people are not restricted to vote for the current 4 candidates. Someone else could be drafted, assuming they would go along.  For example, if Mitch Daniels would agree to run if drafted, I think he would immediately win the nomination.  Of course, among Romney, Santorum, Gingrich and Paul, if they are all still candidates, they could talk among themselves, and make deals.   One of them could emerge as the winner.

Note that the primary/caucus season can only fail to produce a winner if there are 3 or more candidates.  If, for example, Gingrich and Paul drop out, Romney or Santorum would win before the convention.

I believe that many are not satisfied with the current set of candidates and would welcome a brokered convention and the chance to nominate someone else.  However, no one might step forward to become a new candidate.  It’s a forlorn hope for many.    But, wouldn’t it be a hoot?

 

The candidates and their chances

by asmwizard

I evaluate the candidates and their chances to win. (Written on January 31, 2012, before Florida’s results are known.)

Mitt Romney:

  • Seems to have no clear ideas of what he will do in anything but economics. On his website, his “jobs” white paper (read economics) is extensive and detailed, but appears to have been written by someone else. Whoever wrote it said Romney wants a “territorial” tax system, in which a company pays taxes only in the country where the income is earned. For example, an American company selling goods in Germany would only pay taxes to Germany. This scares me, because it might invite outsourcing. His health care reform page has only general suggestions. His foreign policy page again seems to have been written by someone else and contains only generalities. We end up knowing nothing whatever about what he will do in entitlement reform and foreign policy.
  • Is the least experienced candidate at the national level. I fear he will be learning on the job to a great extent.
  • Is not clearly conservative. He has held liberal positions in the past, and we may be electing someone who (like Obama) will say what is necessary to be elected, then as president will revert to his real ideology and will govern from the left.
  • Is definitely a good manager, according to his reputation. That is his strong suit. A good manager can overcome gaps in his personal knowledge and understanding of issues. I only pray that he will be able to do this.
  • Who knows whether Romney is a true reformer? I don’t know that he has the ideas or the energy to reform the current version of America to any extent. This is what scares me about him – we may be electing another establishment conservative who won’t really do anything.
  • Appears to have the nomination locked up. His landslide win in Florida and his huge supply of campaign money leaves Gingrich with little hope of future success. I’d rate Romney’s chances as 80%. Only something unpredictable can derail him.

Ron Paul:

  • A libertarian, he is a protest candidate, trying to raise awareness as to how far America has strayed from the Constitution and the principles of the Founding Fathers.
  • He is too old to be president, in my opinion. Even though he may be the healthiest of the candidates now, at 76 his health and vigor could wane rapidly.
  • His foreign policy ideas are less than sane.
  • He has no chance to be elected president.

Rick Santorum:

  • Is a true conservative, is bright and very energetic. He is also young and unseasoned.
  • His website is well done, detailed, and comprehensive. It shows a great deal of thought has gone into what he will do as president.
  • His lack of gravitas holds him back, and would hold him back as president. He might try for reforms, but Congress and the American people might not take him seriously. In 4 or 8 years, after maturing, he might be an ideal candidate.
  • His chances of election would depend on Gingrich dropping out before he does, but Romney would have to commit a major blunder. Not likely. I’d rate his chances at 5%.

Newt Gingrich:

  • Is a true conservative. Like Rick, is bright and very energetic, almost to a fault. At 68, with 20 years in the House behind him, and a dozen years of being out of office and mostly out of politics, he has had time to think and mature.
  • He is a true reformer, and as president would make many fundamental changes. He would step on many, many toes in the process. In other words, he is exactly what we need. Unfortunately, the people with the toes he would step on know that, and are ferociously and viciously attacking him.
  • He understands the issues far better than any of the other candidates, with the possible exception of Ron Paul. His long career in the House has completely educated him on the issues.
  • His debate skills, formidable as they are, will not help him against Obama, who will simply refuse to debate. Newt will have to campaign with TV appearances, ads, and help from blogs and conservative journalists.
  • I give him a 15% chance of being the nominee. Newt’s potential depends on something unpredictable happening. Even if Santorum drops out and endorses him before Super Tuesday, Newt’s chances are slim and none.